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- Title
Time‐varying, nonlinear suspended sediment rating curves to characterize trends in water quality: An application to the Upper Hudson and Mohawk Rivers, New York.
- Authors
Ahn, Kuk‐Hyun; Steinschneider, Scott
- Abstract
This work proposes two modelling frameworks for diagnosing temporal variations in nonlinear rating curves that describe suspended sediment–discharge relationships. A variant of the weighted regression on time, discharge, and season model is proposed and is compared against dynamic nonlinear modelling, a newly developed nonlinear time series filter based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Both approaches estimate a time series of rating curve parameters, with uncertainty, that can be used to diagnose variability in the sediment–discharge relationship over time. We evaluate the models with a variety of synthetic scenarios to highlight their ability to estimate signals of known rating curve change. Results reveal important bias‐variance trade‐offs unique to each approach, and in general, suggest that dynamic nonlinear modelling is better suited for rapid rating curve changes, whereas the weighted regression on time, discharge, and season variant more precisely estimates slow change. The techniques are then applied in two case studies in the Upper Hudson and Mohawk Rivers in New York. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of dynamic rating curves for the management of water quality in riverine and estuary systems.
- Subjects
NEW York (State); MONTE Carlo method; SUSPENDED sediments; WATER quality; WATER quality management; TURBIDITY; TIME series analysis; RATING curve (Hydrology)
- Publication
Hydrological Processes, 2019, Vol 33, Issue 13, p1865
- ISSN
0885-6087
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/hyp.13443