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- Title
Should Longtermists Recommend Hastening Extinction Rather Than Delaying It?
- Authors
Pettigrew, Richard
- Abstract
Longtermists argue we should devote much of our resources to raising the probability of a long happy future for sentient beings. But most interventions that raise that probability also raise the probability of a long miserable future, even if they raise the latter by a smaller amount. If we choose by maximising expected utility, this isn't a problem; but, if we use a risk-averse decision rule, it is. I show that, with the same probabilities and utilities, a risk-averse decision theory tells us to hasten human extinction, not delay it. What's more, I argue that morality requires us to use a risk-averse decision theory. I present this not as an argument for hastening extinction, but as a challenge to longtermism.
- Subjects
DECISION theory; EXPECTED utility; PROBABILITY theory
- Publication
Monist, 2024, Vol 107, Issue 2, p130
- ISSN
0026-9662
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1093/monist/onae003