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- Title
CALIBRATION AND THE EXPERT PROBLEM.
- Authors
French, S.
- Abstract
A decision maker needs to give his subjective probability for a single event of interest, A. Being aware that he has little substantive knowledge of the factors affecting A. the decision maker asks an expert for advice. The expert gives his subjective probability for A. In the light of this information, how should the decision maker form his subjective probability? In particular, does it matter to the decision maker whether the expert is a well-calibrated probability assessor? In this paper these questions are explored and it is suggested that concepts such as calibration and refinement cannot usefully be defined independently of the decision maker.
- Subjects
DECISION making; CALIBRATION; PHYSICAL measurements; PROBABILITY theory; STATISTICAL correlation; STANDARDIZATION; SPECIALISTS; SUBJECTIVITY; MANAGEMENT science
- Publication
Management Science, 1986, Vol 32, Issue 3, p315
- ISSN
0025-1909
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1287/mnsc.32.3.315