We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Demographic resilience may sustain significant coral populations in a 2°C‐warmer world.
- Authors
Mason, Robert A. B.; Bozec, Yves‐Marie; Mumby, Peter J.
- Abstract
Projections of coral reefs under climate change have important policy implications, but most analyses have focused on the intensification of climate‐related physical stress rather than explicitly modelling how coral populations respond to stressors. Here, we analyse the future of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) under multiple, spatially realistic drivers which allows less impacted sites to facilitate recovery. Under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 CMIP5 climate ensemble, where warming is capped at ~2°C, GBR mean coral cover declined mid‐century but approached present‐day levels towards 2100. This is considerably more optimistic than most analyses. However, under RCP4.5, mean coral cover declined by >80% by late‐century, and reached near zero under RCP ≥6.0. While these models do not allow for adaptation, they significantly extend past studies by revealing demographic resilience of coral populations to low levels of additional warming, though more pessimistic outcomes might be expected under CMIP6. Substantive coral populations under RCP2.6 would facilitate long‐term genetic adaptation, adding value to ambitious greenhouse emissions mitigation.
- Subjects
GREAT Barrier Reef; CORAL declines; CORAL bleaching; CORALS; CORAL reefs &; islands; PHYSIOLOGICAL stress
- Publication
Global Change Biology, 2023, Vol 29, Issue 14, p4152
- ISSN
1354-1013
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/gcb.16741