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- Title
Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition.
- Authors
Laybourn, Laurie; Evans, Joseph; Dyke, James
- Abstract
The consequences of Earth system destabilisation will impact societies’ ability to tackle the causes of this problem. There are extensive agendas of study and action on the risks from the failure to realise rapid sustainability transitions to date (“physical risk”) and the risks resulting from these transitions going forward (“transition risk”). Yet there is no established agenda on the risk to sustainability transitions from both physical and transition risks and their knock on consequences. In response, we develop a conceptual socioecological systems model that explores how the escalating consequences of Earth system destabilisation impacts the ability of societies to undertake work on environmental action that re-stabilises natural systems. These consequences can act to spur processes of political, economic, and social change that could accelerate the growth in work done. Conversely, increasingly severe direct and indirect consequences could divert work and political support from environmental action, deepening Earth system destabilisation, thereby increasing the chance of passing a planetary threshold over which human agency to re-stabilise the natural world is severely impaired. We term this ‘derailment risk’: the risk that the path to re-stabilisation of the Earth system is derailed by interacting biophysical and socioeconomic factors. We use a case study of a climate tipping element - the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) - to illustrate this derailment risk. A range of policy responses can identify and mitigate derailment risk, including transformational adaptation. Acting on derailment 25 risk is a critical requirement for deepening Earth system re-stabilisation and avoiding catastrophic outcomes.
- Subjects
ATLANTIC meridional overturning circulation; SYSTEM analysis; RAILROAD accidents; RISK assessment; SUSTAINABILITY
- Publication
Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2023, p1
- ISSN
2190-4995
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/egusphere-2023-1459