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- Title
SOLDIERS' PERCEPTIONS OF CONFLICT LIKELIHOOD: THE EFFECTS OF DOCTRINE AND EXPERIENCE.
- Authors
Foley Meeker, Barbara; Segal, David S.
- Abstract
The effects of three different kinds of military assignment on paratroopers' beliefs about the likelihood of eight types of conflicts are assessed. The soldiers are from five elite paratrooper units, whose primary orientation is toward combat missions but most of whom had no combat experience prior to this study. Data were collected three times from a unit that remained in garrison for six months, three times from a unit that went to jungle warfare school, and five times from units which were sent on peacekeeping duty to the Sinai, one of which also experienced combat in Grenada. Previous research on soldier beliefs about the likelihood of different intensities of conflict (ranging from peacekeeping to nuclear war) has shown that they think that peacekeeping is likely and that nuclear war is unlikely, but do not distinguish between other intensities of conflict. Our hypothesis was that the units with actual duty assignments, either to peacekeeping or to Grenada, would develop a more complex view of this matter, and make distinctions among intermediate levels of conflict (peace- keeping, guerrilla, limited conventional, large conventional, chemical, tactical biological, and tactical nuclear). This was tested by applying to the aggregated responses of members of each unit two regression models: one predicting the same response for all the intermediate levels of conflict, and one predicting a monotonic increase in estimate of likelihood for more severe conflict. The log of belief about the likelihood was used as the dependent variable. As predicted, the step function model fits better than the monotonic increase model for the units which remained in garrison or went to training, while the rnonotonic model fits better than the step function for the units which went on peacekeeping or actual combat duty. 0111 data points, one did not fit the predicted pattern; this was a unit which was surveyed half-way through the peacekeeping assignment.
- Subjects
MILITARY personnel conduct of life; SOCIAL conflict; SENSORY perception; ARMED Forces; MILITARY sociology
- Publication
Journal of Political & Military Sociology, 1987, Vol 15, Issue 1, p105
- ISSN
0047-2697
- Publication type
Article