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- Title
Bayesian Change-Point Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Activity: The Central North Pacific Case.
- Authors
Chu, Pao-Shin; Zhao, Xin
- Abstract
Bayesian analysis is applied to detect change points in the time series of annual tropical cyclone counts over the central North Pacific. Specifically, a hierarchical Bayesian approach involving three layers—data, parameter, and hypothesis—is formulated to demonstrate the posterior probability of the shifts throughout the time from 1966 to 2002. For the data layer, a Poisson process with gamma distributed intensity is presumed. For the hypothesis layer, a “no change in the intensity” hypothesis and a “single change in the intensity” hypothesis are considered. Results indicate that there is a great likelihood of a change point on tropical cyclone rates around 1982, which is consistent with earlier work based on a simple log-linear regression model. A Bayesian approach also provides a means for predicting decadal tropical cyclone variations. A higher number of tropical cyclones is predicted in the next decade when the possibility of the change point in the early 1980s is taken into account.
- Subjects
TROPICAL cyclones; BAYESIAN analysis; POISSON'S equation; REGRESSION analysis; HYPOTHESIS; ELLIPTIC differential equations
- Publication
Journal of Climate, 2004, Vol 17, Issue 24, p4893
- ISSN
0894-8755
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1175/JCLI-3248.1