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- Title
Improving Adaptation Planning for Future Sea-Level Rise.
- Authors
Spirandelli, Daniele J.; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Porro, Roberto; Fletcher, Charles H.
- Abstract
Sea-level rise (SLR) presents risks to communities and ecosystems because of hazards like coastal erosion. In order to adapt, planners and the public seek estimates of shoreline change with high confidence and accuracy. The complexity of shorelines produces considerable uncertainty in the timing, location and magnitude of change. We present and discuss a probabilistic shoreline model for SLR planning. Using the coast of Maui as an illustrative case, we compare this model to a common deterministic model. We discuss the advantages of a probability-based model for SLR adaptation, including for prioritizing actions, phasing, visualizing risk and uncertainty, and improving adaptive management.
- Subjects
RISK assessment of climate change; ADAPTIVE natural resource management; SEA level; SHORELINE monitoring; PROBABILITY measures
- Publication
Journal of Planning Education & Research, 2016, Vol 36, Issue 3, p290
- ISSN
0739-456X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1177/0739456X16657160