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- Title
Reduced Risks of Temperature Extremes From 0.5°C less Global Warming in the Earth's Three Poles.
- Authors
Tang, Bin; Hu, Wenting; Duan, Anmin; Gao, Kailun; Peng, Yuzuo
- Abstract
Future projection of temperature extremes in the "Earth's three poles" (the Arctic, Antarctica, and Third Pole‐Tibetan Plateau [TP]) is of importance to risk assessment and policymaking owing to the high sensitivity to climate change in these regions. In this study, future projections of four extreme temperature indices were constructed after the application of a bias correction method in models of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The reduced intensification of temperature extremes in the Earth's three poles if warming can be limited to 1.5°C instead of 2°C above the pre‐industrial level was examined. Results showed that all the extreme temperature indices show significant increasing trends under both the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios over the Earth's three poles (SSP: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). For the coldest night (TNn), warmest night (TNx), and warmest day (TXx), the greatest increase by the end of the 21st century under SSP5–8.5 occurs in the Arctic, followed by the TP and finally Antarctica. For the coldest day (TXn), the greatest increase occurs in the Arctic, followed by Antarctica and finally the TP. If global warming can be limited to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, the intensification of TNn, TNx, TXn, and TXx in the Arctic (Antarctica/TP) under SSP5–8.5 is projected to reduce by 66% (21.7%/44.26%), 50.31% (54.79%/60.52%), 71.58% (12.91%/65.81%), and 41.73% (81.3%/57.34%), respectively, and the results are similar for SSP2–4.5. Therefore, keeping a lower warming target is essential for reducing the risk of extreme events in the Earth's three poles. Plain Language Summary: Efforts to understand and project climate change over the Earth's three poles (the Arctic, Antarctica, and Third Pole‐Tibetan Plateau) under global warming scenarios are crucial for risk assessment and policymaking aimed at coping with future climate change. This study reports the future change of four extreme temperature indices over the Earth's three poles based on the observational data sets and outputs from models of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with bias correction. We find that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extreme temperature indices over the Earth's three poles. All the four extreme temperature indices with bias correction show consistent increasing trends under both Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 over the Earth's three poles. Although the future changes in extreme temperature indices under a 1.5°C or 2°C warming world are not uniform in space, the risk of temperature extremes over the Earth's three poles is likely to decrease when global warming is limited to 1.5°C instead of 2°C under both SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. This means that a lower warming target is necessary for reducing the risks of extreme temperature over the three poles. Key Points: All the four extreme temperature indices show consistent increasing trends under both Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 in the Earth's three polesThe increase of four extreme temperature indices in the Earth's three poles with global mean temperature is linearA lower warming target is necessary for reducing the risks of extreme temperature over the three poles
- Subjects
ANTARCTICA; GLOBAL warming; EARTH temperature; EARTH (Planet); CLIMATE sensitivity; POLISH people
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2022, Vol 10, Issue 2, p1
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2021EF002525