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- Title
Forecasting growth cycle turning points using US and Japanese professional forecasters.
- Authors
Fukuda, Kosei
- Abstract
This paper examines the forecasting of growth cycle turning points by comparing the performances of US and Japanese professional forecasters with those of a simple time-series model, using real-time data. The empirical results, obtained after performing contingency table analyses and visual inspections, indicate that the US professional forecasters considerably outperform the simple time-series model; however, the Japanese professional forecaster is comparable to the simple time-series model in the visual inspections of major turning points.
- Subjects
UNITED States; JAPAN; BUSINESS forecasting; TIME series analysis; EMPIRICAL research; GROSS domestic product
- Publication
Empirical Economics, 2009, Vol 36, Issue 2, p243
- ISSN
0377-7332
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s00181-008-0194-1