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- Title
Modelling the impact of varicella vaccination on varicella and zoster.
- Authors
Karhunen, M.; Leino, T.; Salo, H.; Davidkin, I.; Kilip, T.; Auranen, K.
- Abstract
It has been suggested that the incidence of herpes zoster may increase due to lack of natural boosting under large-scale vaccination with the varicella vaccine. To study the possibility and magnitude of such negative consequences of mass vaccination, we built a mathematical model of varicella and zoster epidemiology in the Finnish population. The model was based on serological data on varicella infection, case-notification data on zoster, and new knowledge about close contacts relevant to transmission of infection. According to the analysis, a childhood programme against varicella will increase the incidence of zoster by one to more than two thirds in the next 50 years. This will be due to increase in case numbers in the ⩾35 years age groups. However, high vaccine coverage and a two-dose programme will be very effective in stopping varicella transmission in the population.
- Subjects
MATHEMATICAL models; VARICELLA-zoster virus; HERPES zoster; IMMUNOSPECIFICITY; INFECTIOUS disease transmission; PREVENTIVE medicine; DISEASE risk factors
- Publication
Epidemiology & Infection, 2010, Vol 138, Issue 4, p469
- ISSN
0950-2688
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1017/S0950268809990768