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- Title
A Phillips curve for the euro area.
- Authors
Ball, Laurence; Mazumder, Sandeep
- Abstract
This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core inflation since the creation of the euro are well explained by three factors: expected inflation (as measured by surveys of forecasters); the output gap (as measured by the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development); and the pass‐through of movements in headline inflation. Our specification resolves the puzzle of a "missing disinflation" after the Great Recession, and it diminishes the puzzle of a "missing inflation" during the recent economic recovery.
- Subjects
ORGANISATION for Economic Co-operation &; Development; EUROZONE; PHILLIPS curve; FOOD prices; CALORIC content of foods; PRICE deflation; PRICE inflation
- Publication
International Finance, 2021, Vol 24, Issue 1, p2
- ISSN
1367-0271
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/infi.12381