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- Title
SHOULD OIL PRICES RECEIVE SO MUCH ATTENTION? AN EVALUATION OF THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF OIL PRICES FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY.
- Authors
BACHMEIER, LANCE; LI, QI; LIU, DANDAN
- Abstract
This paper evaluates the potential gains from using oil prices to forecast a variety of measures of inflation, economic activity, and monetary policy–related variables. With a few exceptions, oil prices do not have any predictive content for these variables. This finding is robust to the use of rolling forecast windows, the use of industry-level data, changes in the forecast horizon, and allowing for nonlinearities. ( JEL Q43, E37, C32)
- Subjects
ECONOMIC forecasting; UNITED States economy; PETROLEUM industry; PRICE inflation; MONETARY policy; ECONOMIC activity
- Publication
Economic Inquiry, 2008, Vol 46, Issue 4, p528
- ISSN
0095-2583
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00095.x