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- Title
Projected Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability Change on Streamflow Patterns Using a Functional Flows Approach.
- Authors
Patterson, Noelle K.; Lane, Belize A.; Sandoval‐Solis, Samuel; Persad, Geeta G.; Ortiz‐Partida, J. Pablo
- Abstract
Streamflow patterns are shifting with climate change, and these shifts pose increasing risk to freshwater ecosystems. These emerging changes must be linked with ecological functions of river systems to understand how climate change may affect freshwater biota. In this study we used a functional flows approach to analyze the ecological effects of changing streamflow patterns in snowmelt‐dominated watersheds of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. Our climate change modeling method combined ensemble Global Climate Models (GCMs) and decision scaling methods to incorporate the effects of GCM‐projected changes in precipitation variability on streamflow patterns. Of climate parameters explored, air temperature causes the most change in functional flows, although precipitation variability compounds changes driven by air temperature. The greatest changes in ecologically‐relevant streamflow patterns manifest as longer and drier dry season conditions, earlier snowmelt recession, and higher‐magnitude peak flows. Although the directions of changes in functional flow metrics are largely consistent across models and watersheds, the magnitude of change depends strongly on human emissions levels. The analytical approach used in this study can serve as a model for integrating multiple approaches in hydroclimatic assessment of ecological change, and the results can help prioritize specific aspects of the flow regime for restoration efforts. Plain Language Summary: In this study we explored ways ecologically‐significant streamflow patterns, or functional flows, may shift due to climate change in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. We considered 18 watersheds along the Sierra Nevada range to find how changes differed across the region, and we also studied a single watershed in‐depth to find out what aspects of climate change ‐ air temperature, precipitation volume, or precipitation variability ‐ have the most influence on streamflow change. These potential changes in functional flows are important because they could harm river species which are highly adapted to historic streamflow patterns. Our results suggest that air temperature has the greatest impact on streamflow patterns. On top of that, higher precipitation variability (such as longer dry spells and more intense storms) changes streamflow even more. The most common changes in functional flows included longer and drier summer conditions, earlier melting and runoff from snowpack in the spring, and larger flooding flows. These changes showed up consistently across the study area, though the amount of change depended on the level of human‐caused greenhouse gas emissions we may see in the future. Our results can help prioritize river conservation in a changing climate, especially by showing the importance of precipitation variability on changing streamflow patterns. Key Points: Future increases in precipitation variability may compound changes in functional flows expected from temperature increases aloneExpected changes in streamflow patterns include longer and drier dry seasons, earlier snowmelt recession, and higher‐magnitude peak flowsThe magnitude of streamflow change depends strongly on emissions scenarios, although direction of change is consistent between scenarios
- Subjects
SIERRA Nevada (Calif. &; Nev.); CALIFORNIA; PRECIPITATION variability; RUNOFF; CLIMATE change models; ATMOSPHERIC temperature; BASE flow (Hydrology); STREAMFLOW; RIVER conservation
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2022, Vol 10, Issue 7, p1
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2021EF002631