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- Title
A forward test of the Decelerating-Accelerating Seismic Strain model in the Mediterranean.
- Authors
Papazachos, B. C.; Karakaisis, G. F.; Papazachos, C. B.; Panagiotopoulos, D. G.; Scordilis, E. M.
- Abstract
In the last two decades several studies have shown that strong earthquakes are preceded by a sequence of smaller shocks that occur near the focal region of the mainshock with a decelerating time behaviour and by another sequence of shocks that occur in a broader region, exhibiting an accelerating mode with time. Both sequences have predictive properties expressed by empirical relations which are supported by theory. These relations form the Decelerating-Accelerating Seismic Strain (D-AS) model that allows the estimation (prediction) of the mainshock. In the present work eleven couples of such sequences are identified, which in turn probably correspond to eleven strong (M≥6.3) mainshocks ensuing in the Mediterranean area (34°N-45°N, 6°W-42°E). The time of origin, tc, the magnitude, M, and the epicenter coordinates, E(φ, λ), for each of these expected mainshocks are estimated (predicted) by the D-AS model. Model uncertainties are also provided and several statistical tests are performed in order to allow an objective forward testing and evaluation of the efficiency of the model for intermediate-term earthquake prediction, at the end of the prediction window (end of 2013).
- Subjects
RESEARCH; EARTHQUAKES; EARTHQUAKE zones; ESTIMATION theory; EARTHQUAKE aftershocks; EARTHQUAKE intensity; SEISMOLOGY; RICHTER scale; EARTHQUAKE prediction
- Publication
Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata, 2009, Vol 50, Issue 3, p235
- ISSN
0006-6729
- Publication type
Article