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- Title
HEC-HMS modelių sistemos taikymo Jūros upės šiltojo laikotarpio poplūdžių modeliavimui vertinimas.
- Authors
Stonevičius, Edvinas; Jonuškaitė, Simona
- Abstract
This paper contains an analysis of capability of HECHMS modeling system for simulation and forecast of flash floods in the Jūra River. The set of HEC-HMS system models which requires the minimum input data and is calibrated with smallest number of parameters was used. The study aims to assess whether the existing and readily available hydrological and meteorological data is sufficient to simulate and predict flash floods in the Jūra and similar Lithuanian rivers. The HEC-HMS modeling system was calibrated for nine major flash floods of the Jūra River. The optimal sets of calibration parameters were very different for all floods. One set of parameters which would be acceptable for all flash floods was not found. Therefore, the HEC-HMS modeling system in the analyzed setup and with at present available data can be used to simulate the past flash floods, but is not capable of forecasting. More data about the state of the river basin before the rainfall event is needed for forecasting of flash floods in the Jūra River. It is likely that the availability of data on soil moisture could increase the forecasting potential of HEC-HMS modeling system.
- Subjects
JURA River (Lithuania); FLOOD forecasting; HYDROLOGIC cycle; SOIL moisture; SIMULATION methods &; models
- Publication
Geografija, 2012, Vol 48, Issue 1, p21
- ISSN
1392-1096
- Publication type
Article