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- Title
The Impact of China-OECD De-Risking Strategies.
- Authors
Cerdeiro, Diego; Kothari, Siddharth; Oeking, Anne
- Abstract
The article explores the economic consequences of de-risking strategies employed by OECD countries and China, which involve reshoring production domestically or friend-shoring away from each other. The authors emphasize the potential negative impact of these strategies on global growth, particularly in Asia. They also discuss China's increasing significance in the global economy and trade integration in Asia, as well as the risks associated with trade fragmentation. The authors utilize the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model to quantify the spillover effects of de-risking scenarios. The model demonstrates that significant de-risking measures can result in declines in global GDP, with China and OECD countries experiencing the most significant losses. The article also highlights the potential drawbacks of export restrictions on product quality and emphasizes the importance of comprehensive reforms and constructive dialogue to address these risks.
- Subjects
CHINA; ECONOMIC forecasting; RUSSIAN invasion of Ukraine, 2022-; TRADE regulation; NONTARIFF trade barriers; TARIFF; GLOBAL value chains; COMPARATIVE advantage (International trade); FISCAL policy
- Publication
Economy, Culture & History Japan Spotlight Bimonthly, 2024, Vol 43, Issue 2, p63
- ISSN
1348-9216
- Publication type
Article