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- Title
Can Economists Beat Sport Experts? Analysis of Medal Predictions for Sochi 2014.
- Authors
Otamendi, F. Javier; Doncel, Luis Miguel
- Abstract
Objective: The predictive power of expert knowledge and econometric modeling is analyzed using predictions of results at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic Games. Method: Forecasts by five sport experts and three sport‐agnostic economists are compared at the country level by medal color and by sport. Success ratios and correlation coefficients are used to make these comparisons. Results: Experts beat economists, although both indicators are always above 75 percent at the country level and 60 percent at the medal‐color and sport levels. Indicators are below 40 percent when predicting individual winners and 20 percent when predicting athlete and medal color. Conclusions: Expert predictions can help bettors. Econometric models can help design long‐term sport policies.
- Subjects
OLYMPIC Winter Games (22nd : 2014 : Sochi, Russia); OLYMPIC medals; PREDICTION models; SPORTS forecasting; ECONOMISTS; ECONOMETRIC models
- Publication
Social Science Quarterly (Wiley-Blackwell), 2018, Vol 99, Issue 5, p1699
- ISSN
0038-4941
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/ssqu.12530