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- Title
Mixtures and diagnostic plots in modelling road traffic vehicle headways.
- Authors
Cowburn, Gerard J.; Farrow, Malcolm
- Abstract
We consider Bayesian modelling of the inter-arrival times of vehicles on a road. We give particular attention to model checking and propose diagnostic plots to assess whether the model captures features observed in the data. Models for such processes are important in predicting the behaviour of road junctions. Two-component mixtures have often been used, with a variety of distributions for the components and non-Bayesian methods for fitting. The components are often regarded as representing ‘free flowing’ and ‘congested’ vehicles. We propose a gamma-exponential mixture and compare this with some other models. To allow for the serial dependence of headways, we consider the use of a hidden Markov chain for the mixture component allocation.
- Subjects
TRAFFIC engineering; COMMUNICATIONS industries; MARKOV processes; MONTE Carlo method; BAYESIAN analysis; MODEL categories (Mathematics); MIXTURE distributions (Probability theory); MOBILE communication systems; TRANSPORTATION planning
- Publication
Statistical Modelling: An International Journal, 2007, Vol 7, Issue 1, p73
- ISSN
1471-082X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1177/1471082X0600700105