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- Title
Transmission model and optimal control strategy of the fifth wave of COVID-19 in hong kong with age-heterogeneity.
- Authors
Chen, Ya; Zhang, Juping; Jin, Zhen
- Abstract
Taking into account the heterogeneity of the number of contacts, vaccination coverage and protection rates among different age groups, the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 in different age groups are significantly different. Therefore, in order to seek the best prevention and control strategy and release measures, the number of COVID-19 patients is minimized, while medical resources, control costs and the number of deaths due to the disease are kept at the lowest level, and achieve the control goals in the shortest time. In this study, we construct a mathematical model with age-heterogeneity to study the transmission dynamics of the fifth wave of COVID-19 in Hong Kong. First, we investigate the theoretical properties of the model, obtain the basic reproduction number R 0 , and prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. The optimal control theory is applied to the model, and the optimal solution is obtained by using Pontryagin's maximum principle. Second, the least squares method is used to fit the Hong Kong COVID-19 incidence data from December 31, 2021 to February 6, 2022. Through numerical simulations, it is find that when the medical resources cannot meet the needs of patients, the severe patients can be prioritized to be isolated and treated in the hospital, and the mild and asymptomatic patients can be isolated at home, so as to relieve medical pressure and resource shortage, and reduce the number of deaths due to disease. Numerical simulations study of optimal control using gradient descent method with zero-clearing policy as control objective. Comparison of various control strategies shows that costs are lowest if contacts between different age groups, home isolation and vaccination are considered. However, considering the contacts between different age groups, home isolation, vaccination, and nucleic acid testing can speed up the diagnosis of patients and enter hospital isolation treatment, and achieve the control goal in the shortest time.
- Subjects
HONG Kong (China); COVID-19 pandemic; PONTRYAGIN'S minimum principle; BASIC reproduction number; OPTIMAL control theory; CONTROL theory (Engineering); ASYMPTOMATIC patients
- Publication
Nonlinear Dynamics, 2023, Vol 111, Issue 21, p20485
- ISSN
0924-090X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11071-023-08895-9