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- Title
The Effectiveness of Negotiations over International River Claims.
- Authors
Brochmann, Marit; Hensel, Paul R.
- Abstract
Rising demand for water in water-scarce areas has led to frequent predictions of looming 'water wars,' although evidence suggests that water is also an important source of cooperation. This paper follows up on recent research suggesting that river disagreements are more likely to lead to both militarized conflict and peaceful negotiations when water demands and water scarcity are greatest, but that river treaties have generally prevented militarization while increasing negotiations. Here, we examine the effectiveness of these negotiations, in order to determine whether factors that promote negotiation onset have different effects on negotiation outcomes. Empirical analysis suggests that negotiations are most likely to succeed when they concern rivers with high value for the negotiating states (with many uses offering the possibility of negotiating tradeoffs), when they concern a current rather than future problem, and when the adversaries share closer overall relations, but less likely when water scarcity is more acute and when they involve a cross-border river with a stronger upstream state.
- Subjects
INTERNATIONAL rivers; NEGOTIATION; INTERNATIONAL cooperation on water supply; SCARCITY; INTERNATIONAL relations; RISK assessment; PEACE
- Publication
International Studies Quarterly, 2011, Vol 55, Issue 3, p859
- ISSN
0020-8833
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00670.x