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- Title
Principais Padrões de Verão da Pressão ao Nível do Mar sobre a Região da América do Sul no Clima Presente e em Projeções Futuras.
- Authors
Alves Teodoro, Thales; Simões Reboita, Michelle; Juan Escobar, Gustavo Carlos
- Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the ability of some global climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP, phase 5 - CMIP5 and phase 6 - CMIP6) and the simulations of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4 - version 4) in representing the main synoptic patterns of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) in summer (December-January-February) over South America (SA) and adjacent oceans in the period 1995-2014 (present climate). In addition, the model with better performance in simulating the present climate is selected for the analysis of the projected changes in the MSLP patterns in the period 2080-2099 (future climate), considering a pessimist scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5). For the identification of the main synoptic patterns, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied using ERA5 reanalysis and simulations. The selection of the model that better represents the principal components (PCs) of ERA5 is carried out by analyzing the spatial correlation between the PCs of the models with the PCs of ERA5. The results indicate that the MPIP-ESM-MR model of CMIP5 (MPICMIP5) is the one that better reproduces the main PNMM patterns of ERA5 (PC1, PC2, and PC3). Thus, this model is used to study the future climate. MPICMIP5 does not project major changes in the spatial patterns of PCs in the future climate, but, on the other hand, it indicates changes in the frequency of the patterns found.
- Subjects
SOUTH America; CLIMATE change models; ATMOSPHERIC models; PRINCIPAL components analysis; CLIMATE change; OCEAN
- Publication
Anuario do Instituto de Geociencias, 2022, Vol 45, p1
- ISSN
0101-9759
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.11137/1982-3908_2022_45_40597