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- Title
Persistence of Precipitation Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study.
- Authors
Oruc, Sertac
- Abstract
This study examines the persistence and long-term correlation of monthly and seasonal precipitation time series of the Kırşehir province (Turkey) for the period of 1960-2019, with the widely used Hurst exponent (H) and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) methods. Both methods can be used to detect the long-term memory and correlation to be assessed as a reference of predictability. In order to support the study results, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Mann-Kendall (MK) tests were applied to the time series under consideration. In some of the precipitation series, the evidence of persistence and long-term correlation was identified. According to the H exponent values, 10 out of 12 months, winter, and autumn seasons (with both simple R/S and corrected R/S methods), and spring and summer seasons (respectively with simple R/S and corrected R/S methods) exhibit long term correlations. On the other hand, according to the DFA scaling exponent values, 4 out of 12 months, winter and autumn seasons reveal long term correlations. When the H exponent and DFA scaling exponent values are compared only four monthly and two seasonal precipitation series are found to be consistent with each other.
- Subjects
INDUSTRIAL engineering; MANUFACTURED products; MANUFACTURING processes; PROJECT management; ENGINEERING economy
- Publication
International Journal of Engineering Research & Development (IJERAD), 2022, Vol 14, Issue 1, p246
- ISSN
1308-5514
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.29137/umagd.868317