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- Title
Active Layer Thickness and Permafrost Area Projections for the 21st Century.
- Authors
Peng, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Tingjun; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.; Mu, Cuicui; Wang, Kang; Wu, Xiaodong; Guo, Donglin; Luo, Jing; Hjort, Jan; Aalto, Juha; Karjalainen, Olli; Luoto, Miska
- Abstract
Permafrost warming leads to greenhouse gas release to the atmosphere, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change. Earth system models indicate that more than 80% of the near‐surface permafrost is projected to disappear by the end of this century, but with a high degree of uncertainty. Here, we apply the Stefan solution to estimate permafrost degradation under future emission scenarios. We find that the most severe future scenario is likely to lead to only a 14% decrease in area extent of the near‐surface permafrost at 3.5 m depth, and an area extent decrease of 1.3% at a depth of 6.0 m. Relative to active layer thickness increases from historical simulations, we find a less than 30% deepening for most permafrost regions by the end of this century. These results imply that the Stefan solution provides near‐surface permafrost area extent degradation estimates that are substantially lower than directly projected by models. Plain Language Summary: Permafrost underlies about a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere land areas, mostly in the high‐latitudes and high‐altitudes where amplified temperature increases have also been observed. In addition to detrimental effects on ecosystems, hydrology, and infrastructure, loss of permafrost may lead to the release of large amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change. Earth system models project that more than 80% of the near‐surface permafrost will disappear by the end of the 21st century, but with a high degree of uncertainty. Here, we apply a simple approach to estimate permafrost degradation under future emission scenarios. We find that, rather than an 80% reduction, even the most severe future scenario leads to only a 14% decrease in area extent of the near‐surface permafrost at 3.5 m depth, and an area extent decrease of 1.3% at a depth of 6.0 m. Key Points: The most severe future scenario leads to only a 14% decrease in area extent of the near‐surface permafrost by the end of this centuryFuture active layer thickness increases are unequivocal, but will generally deepen by less than 30%
- Subjects
PERMAFROST; CLIMATE feedbacks; TWENTY-first century; GREENHOUSE gases
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2023, Vol 11, Issue 8, p1
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2023EF003573