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- Title
Predicting Recidivism of Juvenile Offenders.
- Authors
Kalist, David E.; Lee, Daniel Y.; Spurr, Stephen J.
- Abstract
This study uses a large data set to analyze and predict recidivism of juvenile offenders in Pennsylvania. We employ a split-population duration model to determine the effect of covariates on (1) the probability of failure, defined as a second referral to juvenile court, and (2) the time to failure, given that it occurs. A test of the predictive power of our estimates finds a false positive rate of 18.5% and a false negative rate of 20.7%, which compares favorably to the performance of other models in the literature.
- Subjects
PENNSYLVANIA; RECIDIVISM; JUVENILE offenders; PREDICTION of criminal behavior; JUVENILE justice administration; PROBABILITY theory
- Publication
B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2015, Vol 15, Issue 1, p329
- ISSN
2194-6108
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1515/bejeap-2013-0188