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- Title
Probabilistic precipitation rate estimates with space‐based infrared sensors.
- Authors
Kirstetter, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Karbalaee, Negar; Hsu, Kuolin; Hong, Yang
- Abstract
The uncertainty structure of satellite‐based passive infrared quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is largely unknown at fine spatio‐temporal scales, and requires more than just one deterministic "best estimate" to adequately cope with the intermittent, highly skewed distribution that characterizes precipitation. An investigation of this subject has been carried out within the framework of the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks‐Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN‐CCS). A new method, PIRSO (Probabilistic QPE using InfraRed Satellite Observations), is proposed to advance the use of uncertainty as an integral part of QPE. Probability distributions of precipitation rates are computed instead of deterministic values using a model quantifying the relation between satellite infrared brightness temperatures and the corresponding "true" precipitation rate. Ensembles of brightness temperatures‐to‐precipitation rate relationships are derived at a 30 min/0.04° scale. This approach conditions probabilistic quantitative precipitation estimates (PQPE) on the precipitation rate and typology. PIRSO's components were estimated based on a data sample covering two warm seasons over the conterminous USA. Precipitation probability maps outperform the deterministic PERSIANN‐CCS QPE. PIRSO is shown to mitigate systematic biases from deterministic retrievals, quantify uncertainty, and advance the monitoring of precipitation extremes. It also provides the basis for precipitation probability maps and satellite precipitation ensembles needed for satellite multi‐sensor merging of precipitation, early warning and mitigation of hydrometeorological hazards, and hydrological modelling. Satellite‐based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) requires more than just one deterministic "best estimate" to adequately cope with the intermittent, highly skewed precipitation distribution. A new approach called Probabilistic QPE using Infrared Satellite Observations (PIRSO) is proposed to advance the use of uncertainty as an integral part of QPE. PIRSO precipitation probability maps outperform conventional deterministic QPE by mitigating biases. PIRSO quantifies uncertainty needed for precipitation ensembles and multisensor merging, and advances the monitoring of precipitation extremes for hydrometeorological hazards.
- Subjects
PRECIPITATION probabilities; INFRARED detectors; HYDROMETEOROLOGY; REMOTE sensing; BRIGHTNESS temperature
- Publication
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2018, Vol 144, p191
- ISSN
0035-9009
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/qj.3243