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- Title
Shear wave splitting as a proxy for stress forecast of the case of the 2006 Manyas-Kus Golu (M<sub>b</sub> =5.3) earthquake.
- Authors
Polat, G.; Ozel, N. M.; Crampin, S.; Ergintav, S.; Tan, O.
- Abstract
The 2006 Mb =5.3 Manyas-Kus Golu (Manyas) earthquake has been retrospectively "stress-forecasted" using variations in time-delays of seismic shear wave splitting to evaluate the time and magnitude at which stress-modified microcracking reaches fracture criticality within the stressed volume where strain is released. We processed micro earthquakes recorded by 29 TURDEP (Multi-Disciplinary Earthquake Research in High Risk Regions of Turkey) and 33 KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) stations in the Marmara region by using the aspectratio cross-correlation and systematic analysis of crustal anisotropy methods. The aim of the analysis is to determine changes in delay-times, hence changes in stress, before and after the 2006 Manyas earthquake. We observed that clear decreases in delay times before the impending event, especially at the station GEMT are consistent with the anisotropic poro-elasticity (APE) model of fluid-rock deformation, but we could not observe similar changes at other stations surrounding the main event. The logarithms of the duration of the stress-accumulation are proportional (self-similar) to the magnitude of the impending event. Although time and magnitude of th 2005 Manyas earthquake could have been stress-forecasted, as has been recognized elsewhere, shearwave splitting does not appear to provide direct information about the location of impending earthquakes.
- Subjects
MARMARA Island (Turkey); SHEAR waves; EARTHQUAKE prediction; TIME delay systems; SEISMIC waves; FLUID dynamics; FRACTURE mechanics; RETROSPECTIVE studies
- Publication
Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 2012, Vol 12, Issue 4, p1073
- ISSN
1561-8633
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/nhess-12-1073-2012