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- Title
HİSSE SENEDİ FİYATINA ETKİ EDEN MAKROEKONOMİK FAKTÖRLERİN İNCELENMESİ: SİMETRİK VE ASİMETRİK NEDENSELLİK SINAMASI (2006-2020 DÖNEMİ).
- Authors
GÖGÜL, Pelin Karatay; YAMAN, Demet
- Abstract
Examining the factors that influence stock prices, such as Turkey, firms with high external debt stock, for portfolio investments is extremely sensitive to capital movements, where there is high inflation, stock market integrated into the global financial system and Bank-based financial systems are important for countries. Therefore, determining the factors affecting the stock price becomes important in terms of shaping economic policies on a micro-and macro scale. For this purpose, the causal relations between stock prices (BIST 100), exchange rate, deposit interest rate, Brent oil prices, money supply (M2), CPI and Industrial Production Index variables were investigated by Symmetric and asymmetric causalality tests for the period 2006:1-2020:7. The findings point to the existence of a causal relationship between the exchange rate, deposit interest rate, money supply and oil prices towards stock prices in the symmetric analysis. However, no causal relationship was found between CPI and Industrial Production Index and stock prices. In asymmetric analysis, it is seen that exchange rate and money supply variables in positive components are the cause of stock prices, while inflation rate in negative components is the cause of stock prices. On the other hand, it has been found that interest rate and oil price variables have a causal relationship with stock prices in both positive and negative components. Any causal relationship between the Industrial Production Index and stock prices has not been determined.
- Subjects
TURKEY; INDUSTRIAL production index; STOCK price indexes; INTEREST rates; STOCK prices; INVESTMENTS
- Publication
Sakarya Journal of Economics / Sakarya Iktisat Dergisi, 2020, Vol 9, Issue 4, p258
- ISSN
2147-0790
- Publication type
Article