We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Empirical assessment of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province within the framework of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality: a lasso-TPE-BP neural network approach.
- Authors
Chen, Ruihan; Ye, Minhua; Li, Zhi; Ma, Zebin; Yang, Derong; Li, Sheng
- Abstract
The escalating global greenhouse gas emission crisis necessitates a robust scientific carbon accounting framework and innovative development approaches. Achieving emission peaks remains the primary goal for emission reduction. Guangdong Province, a pivotal region in China, faces pressure to reduce carbon emissions. In this study, data was leveraged from the China Carbon Accounting Database (CEADS) and panel data from the "Guangdong Statistical Yearbook" spanning 1997 to 2022. Factors impacting carbon emissions were selected based on Guangdong Province's carbon reduction goals, macroeconomic development strategies, and economic-population dynamics. To address multicollinearity, lasso regression identified key factors, including population size, economic development level, energy intensity, and technology factors. A novel STIRPAT extended model, combined with the BP neural network optimized using the TPE algorithm, enhanced carbon emission predictions for Guangdong Province. Employing scenario analysis, five scenarios were generated in alignment with the planning policies of Guangdong Province, to forecast carbon emissions from 2020 to 2050. The results suggest that to achieve a win-win situation for both economic development and environmental protection, Guangdong Province should prioritize the energy-saving scenario (S2), which aligns with the "13th Five-Year Plan's" ecological and green development directives, to reach a projected carbon peak of 637.05Mt by 2030. In conclusion, recommendations for carbon reduction are proposed in the areas of low-carbon transformation for the population, sustainable economic development, and the development of low-carbon technologies.
- Subjects
GUANGDONG Sheng (China); CARBON emissions; CARBON offsetting; SUSTAINABLE development; GREENHOUSE gases; ENERGY intensity (Economics); ENVIRONMENTAL protection; GREENHOUSE gas mitigation
- Publication
Environmental Science & Pollution Research, 2023, Vol 30, Issue 58, p121647
- ISSN
0944-1344
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11356-023-30882-1