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- Title
Testing the predictive ability of a karst subsidence susceptibility map made thirty years ago in the central Ebro Basin (Zaragoza, Spain).
- Authors
Gracia-Abadías, Javier; Simón, José L.; Soriano, M. Asunción; Salvador, Tomás
- Abstract
Karst subsidence has caused damage in numerous buildings and infrastructures in the surroundings of Zaragoza city since the early 1970s, when rapid urbanization of the area begun. A detailed survey carried out in 1991 allowed recognizing and mapping damages in an industrial district, and elaborating a susceptibility or spatial hazard map based on (i) the observed presence of active alluvial dolines, and (ii) spatial distribution of factors controlling their development, according to a hazard model based on both spatial analysis and laboratory experimental simulation. The predictive ability of such spatial hazard map is now tested, thirty years later, by a new detailed field survey carried out in 2021 covering almost the same area. The results allow mapping of the total present-day damage and, using GIS tools, also a residual map of areas newly damaged since 1991. After comparing those maps with the hazard zonation proposed in 1991, we conclude that: (i) the predictive ability of the latter is good in overall; (ii) the areas of highest subsidence hazard have a probability in the range of 19–38% of suffering damage over a 30-year period, while this probability systematically decreases up to about 7% for the lowest hazard areas; (iii) the average rate of occurrence of new damage within the overall study zone has remained quite uniform around 0.5% in area per year. Incorporating such calculations of temporal probability of occurrence associated to each hazard category allows the original susceptibility map to approach a hazard s.s. map, providing annual probabilities of occurrence between ~ 0.6 to 1.3% and ~ 0.3% for the distinct hazard zones.
- Subjects
ZARAGOZA (Spain); LAND subsidence; KARST; INDUSTRIAL districts; SPATIAL ability; FIELD research
- Publication
Natural Hazards, 2024, Vol 120, Issue 8, p7357
- ISSN
0921-030X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11069-024-06507-2