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- Title
Seasonal drought forecast. A catchment scale assessment in the island of Crete, Greece.
- Authors
Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis
- Abstract
With the seasonal forecasting to have advanced in the last decade, it is already able to provide valuable information to management authorities to better anticipate water- and climate-related risks in the near future and improved preparedness. Water resources recharge and water consumption in Mediterranean exhibit a highly seasonal pattern region due to the precipitation occurring mainly in winter while the peak consumption to occur in the summer [1, 2]. Additionally, the steep orography of Crete island make weather forecast an even more difficult task. Here, two operational seasonal forecast systems' data, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 4 and Met Office GloSea5 systems are tested for their ability to estimate the streamflow drought in a Mediterranean basin on the island of Crete. Both systems' data are downscaled and corrected for biases towards the observations. Different types of precipitation and temperature data pre-processing are tested and compared [3]. The two systems' data are forced to the calibrated HYPE hydrological model for the case study watershed [4]. Runoff results are assessed for their forecast skill to predict the streamflow drought state comparing to historical streamflow drought events. Results indicate that both ECMWF System 4 and GLOSEA 5 systems exhibit considerable ability to forecast the streamflow drought state with probably GloSea5 to exhibit a slightly better skill. [1] A. G. Koutroulis, M. G. Grillakis, I. N. Daliakopoulos, I. K. Tsanis, and D. Jacob, "Cross sectoral impacts on water availability at +2°C and +3°C for east Mediterranean island states: The case of Crete," J. Hydrol., vol. 532, pp. 16–28, Jan. 2016.[2] A. G. Koutroulis, M. G. Grillakis, I. K. Tsanis, and D. Jacob, "Exploring the ability of current climate information to facilitate local climate services for the water sector," Earth Perspect., vol. 2, no. 1, p. 6, Nov. 2015.[3] Grillakis, M.G., Koutroulis, A.G., Daliakopoulos, I.N. and Tsanis, I.K., 2017. A method to preserve trends in quantile mapping bias correction of climate modeled temperature. Earth System Dynamics, 8(3), pp.889-900.[4] Grillakis, M., Koutroulis, A. and Tsanis, I., 2018. Improving Seasonal Forecasts for Basin Scale Hydrological Applications. Water, 10(11), p.1593.
- Subjects
CRETE (Greece); DROUGHT forecasting; LONG-range weather forecasting; WEATHER forecasting; WATER supply; WATER consumption; ISLANDS; GEOPHYSICS research
- Publication
Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2019, Vol 21, p1
- ISSN
1029-7006
- Publication type
Article