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- Title
Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting.
- Authors
Lourenço, José; de Lima, Maricelia Maia; Faria, Nuno Rodrigues; Walker, Andrew; Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; Villabona-Arenas, Christian Julian; Lambert, Ben; de Cerqueira, Erenilde Marques; Pybus, Oliver G.; Alcantara, Luiz C. J.; Recker, Mario
- Abstract
The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika- related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting.
- Subjects
ZIKA virus; EPIDEMICS; CHIKUNGUNYA; ALPHAVIRUS diseases; INFECTIOUS disease transmission
- Publication
eLife, 2017, p1
- ISSN
2050-084X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.7554/eLife.29820