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- Title
An initialisation scheme for tropical cyclones in the South China Sea.
- Authors
Huang, Yanyan; Feng, Yerong; Dai, Guangfeng; Zhang, Chengzhong; Zheng, Bin
- Abstract
We propose an initialisation scheme for weak tropical cyclones (TCs) in the South China Sea (SCS) by combining composite and analysis vortices to improve forecasts of weak TCs in the region. The composite vortex is obtained from good samples of analyses of TCs in the SCS, and the analysis vortex is obtained from either European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis data or an operational assimilation system. The new scheme has been applied to 57 cases of weak TCs, and the effect on the forecasting of four tropical storms has been studied in detail. It can be concluded that the proposed scheme can reduce track errors and intensity errors of weak TCs, compared with the control experiment. The possible reasons for these results are investigated in a case study for Linfa. Results of batch experiments show that the new method significantly improves TC track forecasting of tropical storms, severe tropical storms and typhoons, and demonstrates significant advantages in forecasting intensity of tropical storms, compared with the control experiment. It also performs better in predicting intensity of TCs in the SCS compared with ECMWF Atmospheric Model high resolution.
- Subjects
EUROPEAN Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Organization); TROPICAL cyclones; TYPHOONS; TROPICAL storms; SEVERE storms; ATMOSPHERIC models; OPERATIONS research
- Publication
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2021, Vol 147, Issue 739, p3096
- ISSN
0035-9009
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/qj.4118