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- Title
Problems with solar, volcanic, and ENSO attribution using multiple linear regression methods on temperatures from 1979-2012.
- Authors
Masters, T.
- Abstract
The effectiveness of multiple linear regression approaches in removing solar, volcanic, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences from the recent (1979-2012) surface temperature record is examined, using simple energy balance and global climate models (GCMs). These multiple regression methods are found to incorrectly diagnose the underlying signal - particularly in the presence of a deceleration - by generally overestimating the solar cooling contribution to an early 21st century pause while underestimating the warming contribution from the Mt. Pinatubo recovery. In fact, one-box models and GCMs suggest that the Pinatubo recovery has contributed more to post- 2000 warming trends than the solar minimum has contributed to cooling over the same period. After adjusting the observed surface temperature record based on the naturalonly multi-model mean from several CMIP5 GCMs and an empirical ENSO adjustment, a significant deceleration in the surface temperature increase is found, ranging in magnitude from -0.06 to -0.12 Kdec-2 depending on model sensitivity and the temperature index used. This likely points to internal decadal variability beyond these solar, volcanic, and ENSO influences.
- Subjects
SURFACE temperature; SOLAR energy; VOLCANOLOGY; GLOBAL warming; REGRESSION analysis; EL Nino
- Publication
Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2013, Vol 4, Issue 2, p1065
- ISSN
2190-4995
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/esdd-4-1065-2013