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- Title
APPLYING THE REPERTORY GRID METHOD FOR TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING: CIVIL UNMANNED AVIATION SYSTEMS FOR GERMANY.
- Authors
Eimecke, Jörgen; Baumert, Katrin; Baier, Daniel
- Abstract
Multistage expert surveys like the Delphi method are proven concepts for technology forecasting that enable the prediction of content-related and temporal development in fields of innovation (e.g., [1, 2]). Advantages of these qualitative multistage methods are a simple and easy to understand concept while still delivering valid results [3]. Nevertheless, the literature also points out certain disadvantages especially in large-scale technology forecasts in particularly abstract fields of innovation [4]. The proposed approach highlights the usefulness of the repertory grid method as an alternative for technology forecasting and as a first step for preference measurement. The basic approach from Baier and Kohler [5] is modified in-so-far that an online survey reduces the cognitive burden for the experts and simplifies the data collection process. Advantages over alternative approaches through its simple structure and through combining qualitative and quantitative methods are shown and an adaption on an actual field of innovation - civil drones in Germany - is done. The measurement of a common terminology for all experts minimizes misunderstandings during the interview and the achievement of an inter-individual comparable level of abstraction is forced by the laddering technique [6] during the interview.
- Subjects
COMMERCIAL drones; DELPHI method; TECHNOLOGICAL innovations; NEW product development; REPERTORY grid technique; PREDICTION models
- Publication
Management & Production Engineering Review (MPER), 2017, Vol 8, Issue 3, p22
- ISSN
2080-8208
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1515/mper-2017-0025