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- Title
Atmospheric effects of the emerging mainland Chinese transportation system at and beyond the regional scale
- Authors
Russell, Armistead G.; Blake, Donald R.; McCreary, Edward Iain; Elliott, Scott; Lu, Rong; Brown, Michael J.; Turco, Richard P.; Rowland, F. Sherwood; Streit, Gerald E.; Zhao, Xue Peng; Shen, Mei; Kao, C. Y. J.
- Abstract
Local surface travel needs in the People's Republic of China (mainland China) have traditionally been met largely by nonpolluting bicycles. A major automobile manufacturing/importing effort has begun in thecountry over the last decade, and planning documents indicate that the Chinese may strive to acquire more than 100 million vehicles earlyin the next century. By analogy with large automotive fleets alreadyexisting in the western world, both regional and global scale pollution effects are to be expected from the increase. The present work adopts the latest projections of Chinese automobile manufacture and performs some quantitative assessments of the extent of pollution generation. Focus for the investigation is placed upon the oxidant ozone. Emissions of the precursor species nitrogen oxides and volatile organics are constructed based on data for the current automotive sector inthe eastern portion of the United States. Ozone production is first estimated from measured values for continental/oceanic scale yields relative to precursor oxidation. The estimates are then corroborated through idealized two dimensional modeling of the photochemistry taking place in springtime air flow off the Asian land mass and toward thePacific Ocean. The projected fleet sizes could increase coastal and remote oceanic ozone concentrations by tens of parts per billion (ppb) in the lower troposphere. Influences on the tropospheric aerosol system and on the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are treated peripherally. Nitrogen oxides created during the vehicular internal combustion process will contribute to nitrate pollution levels measured in the open Pacific. The potential for soot and fugitive dust increases should be considered as the automotive infrastructure develops. Sincethe emerging Chinese automotive transportation system will representa substantial addition to the global fleet and all the carbon in gasoline is eventually oxidized completely, a significant rise in globalcarbon
- Subjects
CHINA; AIR pollution; PHOTOCHEMICAL smog
- Publication
Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry, 1997, Vol 27, Issue 1, p31
- ISSN
0167-7764
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1023/a:1005726818613