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- Title
The Pandemic Waves' Impact on the Crude Oil Price and the Rise of Consumer Price Index: Case Study for Six European Countries.
- Authors
Boldea, Costin Radu; Boldea, Bogdan Ion; Iancu, Tiberiu
- Abstract
This study examines the response of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in local currency to the COVID-19 pandemic using monthly data (March 2020–February 2022), comparatively for six European countries. We have introduced a model of multivariate adaptive regression that considers the quasi-periodic effects of pandemic waves in combination with the global effect of the economic shock to model the variation in the price of crude oil at international levels and to compare the induced effect of the pandemic restriction as well and the oil price variation on each country's CPI. The model was tested for the case of six emergent countries and developed European countries. The findings show that: (i) pandemic restrictions are driving a sharp rise in the CPI, and consequently inflation, in most European countries except Greece and Spain, and (ii) the emergent economies are more affected by the oil price and pandemic restriction than the developed ones.
- Subjects
GREECE; SPAIN; CONSUMER price indexes; ORGANIZATION of Petroleum Exporting Countries; PETROLEUM sales &; prices; CONSUMER behavior; PANDEMICS; COVID-19 pandemic; HEAVY oil
- Publication
Sustainability (2071-1050), 2023, Vol 15, Issue 8, p6537
- ISSN
2071-1050
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/su15086537