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- Title
Exchange Rate Risk in Central European Countries.
- Authors
Kočnda, Evžn; Poghosyan, Tigran
- Abstract
We address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several Central European (CE) economies. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange market and observable country-specific macroeconomic factors is modeled using the stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach and a multivariate GARCH-in-mean model. We find that real factors seem to lack significance in determining foreign exchange risk, while nominal factors (inflation and money) have a significant impact. The differences in the impact of nominal factors are related to the actual monetary policy regimes adopted in the countries examined. Our findings have policy implications with respect to currency stability. The central banks in the CE countries should continue stabilization policies aimed at achieving nominal convergence with the core EU members, as nominal country-specific factors play a crucial role in explaining the variability of the risk premium.
- Subjects
CENTRAL Europe; FOREIGN exchange rates; NATIONAL currencies; MACROECONOMICS; STOCHASTIC analysis; PRICE inflation; MONETARY policy; EUROPEAN Union membership; MONEY market; FINANCIAL markets
- Publication
Finance a Uver: Czech Journal of Economics & Finance, 2010, Vol 60, Issue 1, p22
- ISSN
0015-1920
- Publication type
Article