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- Title
Estimation of the Time-Varying Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Based on Multivariate Time Series of Severe Health Outcomes.
- Authors
Young, Benjamin R; Ho, Faith; Lin, Yun; Lau, Eric H Y; Cowling, Benjamin J; Wu, Peng; Tsang, Tim K
- Abstract
The time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt at time t) measures the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and is conventionally based on daily case counts, which may suffer from time-varying ascertainment. We analyzed Rt estimates from case counts and severe COVID-19 (intensive care unit admissions, severe or critical cases, and mortality) across 2022 in Hong Kong's fifth and sixth waves of infection. Within the fifth wave, the severe disease–based Rt (3.5) was significantly higher than the case-based Rt (2.4) but not in the sixth wave. During periods with fluctuating underreporting, data based on severe diseases may provide more reliable Rt estimates.
- Subjects
HONG Kong (China); COVID-19 pandemic; TIME series analysis; INTENSIVE care units; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2
- Publication
Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2024, Vol 229, Issue 2, p502
- ISSN
0022-1899
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1093/infdis/jiad445