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- Title
Desenvolvimento e Aplicaҁão de urn Modelo para Previsão de Demanda em jogos de Empresas.
- Authors
Honaiser, Eduardo Henrique Rangel; Sauaia, Antonio Carlos Aidar
- Abstract
Demand forecasting is an important decision for business games participants. This study has the objectives of developing a model for demand forecasting in business games and perform a preliminary assessment of the model. The research methods adopted: the literature review of the demand forecasting techniques and the models used in several business simulators; establishment of the model requirements due to the business game environment; criteria application to select the model techniques. In the developed model, the demand forecasting is performed in two steps: (1) Industrial demand prediction; (2) Firm demand prediction. The following techniques were used in the model: (a) variables merging; (b) linear regression; (c) Variables weighting; (d) Temporal smoothing; (e) Subjective evaluation. A preliminary assessment of the model was performed in a competitive business game, under limited data availability. Comparing the results of the demand prediction with and without the use of the model, a relevant increase of the model accuracy was obtained with the use of the model. Nevertheless, the limitations and uncertainties of the model created under limited data availability reinforce the need for research replication and data expansion for further evaluations to confirm the adequacy of the model here studied.
- Subjects
DECISION support systems; BUSINESS forecasting; MANAGEMENT games; REGRESSION analysis; ECONOMIC demand
- Publication
RAC - Eletrônica, 2008, Vol 2, Issue 3, p470
- ISSN
1981-5700
- Publication type
Article