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- Title
Dynamic modeling and analysis of COVID‐19 in different transmission process and control strategies.
- Authors
Hu, Lin; Nie, Lin‐Fei
- Abstract
Based on the control measures at different stages of COVID‐19 and its transmission characteristics, we propose a dynamical model to describe the transmission of this virus among wild animals, human population, and the environment, where the migration of humans, asymptomatic infected humans, and the self‐protection awareness of susceptible humans are also introduced. We discuss, firstly, the existence and stability of the disease‐free and endemic equilibrium of wild animals and environment‐only model; this happens to be the initial stage of disease transmission. Further, with the intervention of control measures, the model degenerates into a subsystem with only human population and environment; the existence and stability of the disease‐free equilibrium of this subsystem are studied. With the strengthening of control strategies, the environment and human population subsystems have further degenerated into a human population‐only model with blocking migration and environment; the ultimate extinction of this disease and the peak of the outbreak are researched. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried to explain the main results and the impacts of various control strategies on the disease outbreak. In particular, we also fit the confirmed cases in Wuhan from 24 January to 5 March to illustrate the rationality and effectiveness of our model. The results show that, in the early stage of the outbreak of COVID‐19, stopping all the migration of humans, increasing the intensity of treatment, enhancing the awareness of personal protection, and especially increasing the ability to identify asymptomatic infections are indispensable control means to control this disease.
- Subjects
WUHAN (China); COVID-19; EPIDEMICS; INFECTIOUS disease transmission; POPULATION; ENDEMIC diseases; BASIC reproduction number
- Publication
Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 2021, Vol 44, Issue 2, p1409
- ISSN
0170-4214
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/mma.6839