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- Title
Global streamflow and flood response to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.
- Authors
Liren Wei; Duoying Ji; Chiyuan Miao; Moore, John C.
- Abstract
Flood risk is projected to increase under projections of future warming climates due to an enhanced hydrological cycle. Solar geoengineering is known to reduce precipitation and slowdown the hydrological cycle, and may be therefore be expected to offset increased flood risk. We examine this hypothesis using streamflow and river discharge responses to the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4 experiments. We also calculate changes in 30, 50, 100-year flood return periods relative to the historical (1960–1999) period under the RCP4.5 and G4 scenarios. Similar spatial patterns are produced for each return period, although those under G4 are closer to historical values than under RCP4.5. Under G4 generally lower streamflows are produced on the western sides of Eurasia and North America, with higher flows on their eastern sides. In the southern hemisphere northern parts of the land masses have lower streamflow under G4, and southern parts increases relative to RCP4.5. So in general solar geoengineering does appear to reduce flood risk in most regions, but the relative effects are largely determined by this large scale geographic pattern. Both streamflow and return period show increased drying of the Amazon under both RCP4.5 and G4 scenarios, with more drying under G4.
- Subjects
STREAMFLOW; STRATOSPHERIC aerosols; ENVIRONMENTAL engineering; FLOOD risk; HYDROLOGIC cycle; METEOROLOGICAL precipitation
- Publication
Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics Discussions, 2018, p1
- ISSN
1680-7367
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/acp-2018-338