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- Title
Felkészülés a társadalom idősödésére: Esettanulmány a demográfiai jövőképesség tárgykörében.
- Authors
Iván, Gál Róbert; Márta, Radó
- Abstract
Population ageing often appears in public debates as a threat for the public pension and health care systems due to its distortive effect on the rate of contributors and beneficiaries. In this article we argue that this risk can be mitigated or even eliminated. Changes in the age structure activate various age sensitive processes, which, depending on the reactions of society, can countervail or, to the contrary amplify the direct effects of the changes in the relative size of age groups. Ageing is the product of two population processes those of improving mortality and decreasing fertility. However, none of them is fatal to growth or the public transfer system. Firstly, higher life expectancy does not necessarily increase the dependency rate since it can, and frequently does, go hand in hand with the shifting boundary of old age. In the last quarter of a century the average age of leaving the labour market grew by four-and-a-half years in Hungary whereas the life expectancy at this age remained practically the same. This development can be attributed to the rapidly improving educational composition of cohorts reaching the retirement age. Due to the expansion of tertiary education, also in the last quarter of a century, further growth in the age of exit from the labour market can be expected. Secondly, low fertility certainly worsens future dependency rates but it also gives prospect for increasing labour market activity as well as higher savings. As long as cohorts with low completed fertility exploit this opportunity and work and save more the changing age structure will not necessarily hamper growth and decrease living standards. In this respect, however, the base year of 2010 was not promising. If savings do not increase in the future the contribution of the changing age structure to living standards will be grossly negative after the mid-2020s.
- Publication
Szociológiai Szemle, 2019, Vol 29, Issue 1, p58
- ISSN
1216-2051
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.51624/szocszemle.2019.1.3