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- Title
MODELO DE DINÂMICA DE SISTEMAS PARA EMISSÃO DE ALERTAS DE DESASTRES NATURAIS - UM ESTUDO DE CASO.
- Authors
Ferreira Perroni Silva, Glayse; Neyra Belderrain, Mischel Carmen; Pinheiro Malere, João Pedro
- Abstract
Among the preparation measures that enable the population to respond quickly and effectively to disasters, is the implementation of early warning systems. So, this paper aims to represent the complexity of the process of issuance of natural disasters early warnings and to check on if and how behavioral and underlying factors to decision making can impact the effectiveness of the alert. In order to support this study, a System Dynamics model for an early warning system will be developed, based on a case study applied to the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN). As a result, it is hoped to demonstrate to decision-makers and managers, through a systemic view of the process, like cause and effect relationships between important elements of decision making can affect the performance of the early warnings over time, as well as subsidize the adoption of strategic actions to correct eventual system failures, thus reducing the occurrence of false alerts, lost events and early warnings issued with delays. In addition, the developed model may result in an organizational learning and testing mechanism for strategic planning.
- Publication
Iberoamerican Journal of Industrial Engineering, 2017, Vol 9, Issue 18, p84
- ISSN
2175-8018
- Publication type
Article