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- Title
Dívida pública ótima e a conexão entre crescimento econômico, desenvolvimento financeiro e ciclos fiscais: Evidências empíricas para a economia brasileira.
- Authors
Silva Moreira, Tito Belchior
- Abstract
This monograph assesses the effects of fiscal policy, based on fiscal cycle variables, in addition to the effects of nominal and real credit cycles, on economic growth considering monthly time series from 1996: 03 to 2020: 06. Based on models of simultaneous equations, via GMM, the following empirical results were obtained. On the one hand, the primary surplus cycles (% GDP) respond positively to the public debt cycles (% GDP). On the other hand, the cycle of the primary surplus and the cycle of the difference between the real interest rate and the growth rate have negative and positive impacts on the public debt cycle (% GDP) respectively. Besides, the growth rate of the economy is positively affected by the credit and primary surplus cycles (% GDP) and negatively by public debt. Finally, based on Cointegration models, the optimal level of public debt is between 26% and 27% of GDP.
- Subjects
BRAZIL; ECONOMIC development; GROSS domestic product
- Publication
Cadernos de Finanças Públicas, 2021, Vol 21, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
1806-8944
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.55532/1806-8944.2021.130