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- Title
Ekonomiskās statistikas analīzes modelis: kā investīciju stratēģijas pamats.
- Authors
Freināts, Lauris; Voronova, Irina
- Abstract
The object of the study is a publicly available economic statistics. The goal of publication is to develop an economic statistical analysis model that helps the investor in the stock market, to better define the future direction of the stock market. For better data analysis authors choose to analyze US economic statistics, there are conduct extensive data of the U.S. economic statistics. The extensive data allows authors to calculate the correlations between 9 economical indicators and stock market index S&P 500. When authors chose economical indicators, they guided by the stock market experts and analyst suggestions. The correlations table doesn't holds only correlations in current period, but there are shifts in data correlations, from 1 till 12 months. Those shifts allow authors find correlations, where indicators affect stock market in a most. Basic for this research is an correlation table, it's allows authors to take the next step - create economic statistical analysis model. Economic statistical analysis model is a table, which one could create everyone by using MS excel. In the beginning authors from correlation calculations find out which one of 12 periods had correlations with biggest correlation coefficients and put them in to the model. Correlation coefficients are using in model as a weight value for further calculations. After that authors compare economic statistic indicator value in period n…-12 and period n-12-1, if those two values division are positive (in %), authors give coefficient 1, if negative -1. After that, 1 or -1 is multiplied with correlation coefficient. At the end, in a economic statistical analysis model user of get 9 figures. Summation of that figures could be from -4.85 till +4.85. Authors suggest if value of summation is from -4.85 till -1.62, it is better to stay out from the stock market, if value of summation is from -1.62 till +1.62, stock market is uncertain, if value of summation is from +1.62 till -4.85, it is good time to take actions in stock market.
- Subjects
UNITED States; ECONOMIC statistics; ECONOMIC research; INVESTMENT policy; STOCK exchanges
- Publication
Economics & Business, 2012, Vol 22, p36
- ISSN
2256-0386
- Publication type
Article